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We show that the envelope of forecasts includes the observed secular variation of the geomagnetic field over 5-year intervals, even in the case of rapid changes.
Given that the confidence interval of the forecasts includes the observed value of the employment rate for both genders, we can however not conclude that there is a statistically significant impact at a level of 5%%.
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Updated at 3.20pm GMT 3.08pm GMT The Office for Budget Responsibility has now released its new economic and fiscal outlook, which contains the forecasts included in the autumn statement.
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Just about all economic forecasts, including those of the Obama administration's own economists, say that we're in for a prolonged period of very high unemployment.
He said that the bank was "trying to improve communication" and that process would include the twice-yearly publication of economic forecasts, including gross domestic product and inflation figures.
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