The use of such parameters may bias the estimation of tsunami sources, which is undesirable for tsunami forecasts in the cases of tsunami earthquakes.
The State of exception simply reflects the fact that the technical forecast indicates that, in the case of an eruption, most of the country would be affected, with pyrotechnical material and damaging floods.
The inadequacy of the Poisson model in terms of probabilistic forecasting is evident in the case of high overdispersion, denoted by the parameter k.
Depending on the problems, the hydrologic information needed may range from hourly forecasts (i.e., in the case of flash floods) to seasonal to interannual (i.e., in the case of reservoir operation), and to decadal to century (i.e., in the case of water supply structural design).
Their forecasts have shown that in the case of a tax of about €20, whatever system was selected, the situation with regard to jobs and total consumption would deteriorate, increasing the net deficit in the public accounts, which would remove any margin of manoeuvre for financing accompanying measures and even make it necessary to reduce social transfers [5].
Still, there's enough uncertainty in the forecast that the case of Pennsylvania proving decisive should not be ruled out.
Until then, Lewis will repeatedly check the weather forecast — the area is tented in the case of rain (a distinct possibility this year).
The anticipated decline is forecast to be more profound in the case of wheat, as is likely to reach 579 million tonnes, down almost 3 percent from the 1998 reduced levels.
But the economic forecasts have not been positive, and in the case of continued slow or stagnant economic growth, Professor Sides said, Mr. Obama's best hope then lies in changing the frame of the election, so that it is not a referendum on the economy, but a choice between a president viewed as moderate and an opponent viewed as too extreme.
In the case of forecasts over periods larger than 5 years (for instance 30 years), we found (working over the last decades) that a dynamical calculation based on the coupled Earth dynamo model can outperform a linear extrapolation.
