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Although inflation has persistently undershot forecasts in recent years, analysts said higher oil prices, rising wages and dearer imports as a result of a falling pound were expected to push up prices in the course of 2016.
El Niño is notoriously difficult to predict, but meteorologists have been able to improve their forecasts in recent years, using buoys, satellites and other devices to give real-time atmospheric and oceanic data, along with refined computer models.
James Franklin, chief of forecast operations at the National Hurricane Center in Miami, said forecasters, at least, are ready for this season, having made significant improvements in hurricane-track forecasts in recent years.
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U.K. elections have been tough to forecast in recent years.
The International Monetary Fund has been forecasting in recent years that China's medium-term current-account surplus — the trade surplus plus net earnings on overseas investments — would rise again to 7 percent of Chinese economic output as economies in the West recover.
Several methods have been developed for ionospheric forecasting in recent years, such as the autocorrelation method (Muhtarov and Kutiev 1999), the autoregressive moving average (ARMA) method (Krankowski et al. 2005), a method based on neural networks (Tulunay et al. 2006), and an autoregressive model for predicting VTEC values (Karthik et al. 2012).
"Forecasts were revised down consistently and very rapidly when the financial crisis erupted, but growth out-turns nonetheless still proved substantially weaker than had been projected," it said in a paper exploring its forecasting record in recent years.
A failure to spot the severity of the eurozone crisis and the impact of the meltdown of the global banking system led to consistent forecasting errors in recent years, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development admitted on Tuesday.
(Unlike most developed countries Australia was allowed to increase its emissions by 8%.) Given the dramatic downward revisions in forecast emissions in recent years, because of lower electricity demand and the decline in heavy manufacturing, this "carry over" allows Australia to claim it has met the small decrease required by its second 2020 target, when its actual emissions are increasing.
The Pentagon has also launched a number of forecasting projects in recent years, hoping, for example, to predict insurgent behaviour.
Data assimilation methods were largely developed for operational weather forecasting, but in recent years have been applied to an increasing range of earth science disciplines.
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