Business decisions based on economic forecasting derived from a single decline curve could be vulnerable to drastic changes of shale gas productivity across the region.
In this paper, we argue that an eventual source of uncertainty over those forecasts derives from temporal aggregation.
Forecasts are derived from weather and climate data collected from a multitude of sources, including satellites, aircraft, weather balloons, and ground-level remote sensing equipment (such as Doppler weather radar).
Our findings are also consistent with 'thin slices' research (Ambady & Rosenthal, 1992, 1993; Babad, Avni-Babad, & Rosenthal, 2004), in which raters' evaluations of brief (<5 min) exposure to targets forecasted information derived from other sources (e.g., teaching evaluations).
Our forecasts, which are derived from the polling but account for its historical accuracy or lack thereof, project for example that Mr. Romney is most likely to receive about 22 percent of the vote.
The structure of the two proposed forecasting models are derived from basic principles, which include a combination of persistence and daily maximum air temperature as input variables.
This is not surprising, since the forecasted field is derived from the SV forecast via (20).
Reference [10] indicates that the nonlinear features of forecasting errors are mainly derived from the typical nonlinear procedure of forecasting systems, i.e., the power curve model, which ideally meets Betz' law, including the cube of the wind speed.
Therefore, in the first stage, the paper forecasts the energy demand derived from renewable sources alongside the generated GHG emissions (under the four scenarios).
