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Political forecasts are about as reliable as book sales forecasts -- which is to say, not very.
Economic forecasts are about as reliable today as weather forecasts were before weather balloons, satellites and radar.
These forecasts are about as good as the Bill Giles one of the 80's where he didn't predict the hurricane winds.
Space weather forecasts are about as accurate now as terrestrial weather forecasts were two decades ago, says Daniel Baker, director of the Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics at the University of Colorado at Boulder and the chair of a 2008 US Space Studies Board report into space weather.
A year's subscription to MarketFirst, launched last November, costs $90,000, and WSI says it has already signed up a dozen customers.MarketFirst would be of little use if it was as unreliable about the forecasts as the forecasts are about the weather.
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The report also includes a box by IMF Chief Economist Olivier Blanchard discussing why economists seem to have underestimated fiscal multipliers, which closes:If the multipliers underlying the growth forecasts were about 0.5, as this informal evidence suggests, our results indicate that multipliers have actually been in the 0.9 to 1.7 range since the Great Recession.
She likes the energy sector because she thinks the $19.50-per-barrel oil price assumption built into earnings forecasts is about $2.50 too low.
"Five-day forecasts today are as good as two-day forecasts were about 20 years ago," Mr. Jarraud said.
The OBR does admit that "the key judgement underpinning our forecast is about the long-awaited return of sustained productivity growth".
"Right now the forecast is about 4percentt, but that would be lowered if we do not see any surge in commodity costs over the next few months," he said.
After expanding at a 4.2% annual rate in the second quarter last year, growth slowed to 3.4% in the third quarter and the consensus fourth-quarter forecast is about 2.6%.
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Justyna Jupowicz-Kozak
CEO of Professional Science Editing for Scientists @ prosciediting.com