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We found that agreement between BlueSky forecasts and observed data was reasonable compared with evaluations of other existing smoke forecasting systems.
Disagreement between BlueSky forecasts and observed data could come from the limitations of the BlueSky system, including its inability to predict smoke from fires outside of the modeling domain, and uncertainty in the input meteorology and/or fire information.
Saturday's first landing opportunity at Kennedy Space Center was waived due to poor weather forecasts, and observed weather violations for the landing criteria.
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The probability of detection, or POD, is found by dividing the overlap between the forecast and observed fields by the size of the observed field: the goal here is a score of 1.
Forecast and observed data are available for 86 catchments over a 17-month period (March 2005 July 2006) for both models and for 82 catchments over a 52-month period (April 2005 July 2009) for the GRP model.
Table 2. Counts of forecast and observed earthquakes over all 0.1° × 0.1° bins.
To define these metrics, we let (F_i) and (O_i) denote forecast and observed values, respectively, of a given variable in hour i and N the number of out-of-sample forecasts used.
It is therefore an established practice to subtract the climate average from both the forecast and the verification and to assess the forecast and observed anomalies according to the ACC.
The critical success index, or CSI, divides the overlap between the forecast and observed fields by the combined size of the forecast and observed fields: the goal here is a score of 1.
The threat score involves the intersection of the forecast and observed sets, with a maximum possible verification score of 1.
In order to test the validity of the models, we conducted a retrospective comparison of forecast and observed numbers in 1986 to 2008.
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