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(He has developed a mathematical model for forecasting when consumers will upgrade, based on this theory).
Mark Carney, the governor of the Bank of England, says that forecasting when productivity growth will return is the trickiest call he has to make.
Forecasting when it will happen is not easy, of course, but you have to suspect that the big run in energy stocks will end badly for investors.
China, for example, used such forecasting when its coast was hit by Typhoon Winnie in 1997, said Gao Lanying, a meteorologist with the Chinese weather agency.
Lightning is by its very nature unpredictable, but forecasting when and where it will strike has become easier following new research.
Its boss, Alan Mulally, has given up forecasting when the firm will return to profit, but Don Leclair, the chief financial officer, says he is confident that he has enough money to finance the recovery strategy.
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The OBR does not forecast when the global economic cycle might eventually turn down, but then official forecasters never predict recessions, do they?
But we make forecasts when it is easy to do so, and we make forecasts when it's hard.
"I'm obviously not going to forecast when," he said.
The Bank of England is expected to revise its inflation forecast when it publishes its inflation report Wednesday.
One use for such information is to forecast when machines will break down.
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Justyna Jupowicz-Kozak
CEO of Professional Science Editing for Scientists @ prosciediting.com