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Finally, the prediction values of the original water temperature datasets are calculated by the sum of the forecasting values of every sub-series.
We can put the forecasting results of two sub-models into the regression equations and get the final forecasting values of weekly price changes.
This paper uses the ratios of mean square error (denoted by MSE θ ) and mean absolute error (denoted by MAE θ ) to the mean price to measure the error of the forecasting values of weekly price changes.
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θ i (1) (t) is the forecasting value of ARIMA model of market i. θ i (2) (t) is the forecasting value of PLA regression model of market i.
Considering the asynchronism of price changes and the accumulating of exogenous variables, this paper is conservative with the forecasting value of urgency.
We finally obtain two groups of values from the model: the forecasting value of the weekly price change θ i ' (t) and the daily adjusted price warning urgency value U i ' (t) in the market i at day t.
The levels of each process parameter for these five DMUs are shown in Table 7, where the forecasting value of a quality index is its value derived from the corresponding regression equations and the real value of a quality index means its value by re-running Moldflow on this combination of process parameters.
To determine the forecast values of the variables we will use Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR), which is necessary since there is a relationship between the variables and between the errors.
In his speech on monetary policy and the housing bubble at the American Economic Association in January 2010, Chairman Bernanke referred to these findings emphasising that...because monetary policy works with a lag, effective monetary policy must take into account the forecast values of the goal variables, rather than the current values.
The forecast values of mean monthly maximum temperature shows an increasing trend.
Open image in new window Figure 4 Monthly average forecast values of temperature (°C) & Electricity consumption (GWh) from 2011 to 2020.
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Justyna Jupowicz-Kozak
CEO of Professional Science Editing for Scientists @ prosciediting.com