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The model has been submitted to the Earthquake Forecasting Testing Experiment for Japan.
The area has been specified by the Earthquake Forecasting Testing Experiment for Japan committee.
As this model will be compared to other forecast techniques within the Earthquake Forecasting Testing Experiment for Japan initiative, we do not perform benchmark comparisons here.
However, the forecast region specified by the Earthquake Forecasting Testing Experiment for Japan committee is large, and so we choose to divide the region into 25 subregions in order to force the algorithm to find local variations in seismicity rate.
In collaboration with CSEP, the Earthquake Forecasting Testing Experiment for Japan is focused on evaluating models that forecast the seismicity of Japan (Research group "Earthquake Forecast System based on Seismicity of Japan", 2009).
The models described here are submitted to the Earthquake Forecasting Testing Experiment for Japan and are undergoing testing against other well known models in a prospective environment to ascertain which submitted model best forecasts the seismicity of Japan.
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Relevant test include Pearson correlation, unit root (stationary or non-stationary test), Granger causality (helpful for short term forecasting), and cointegration (suitable for long term forecasting) tests.
In-sample and out-of-sample forecasting tests are used to examine the performance of the parcel-scale econometric and simulation models, and the importance of multiple forecasting challenges is assessed.
An operational streamflow forecasting testbed was implemented during the Intense Observing Period (IOP) of the Integrated Precipitation and Hydrology Experiment (IPHEx-IOP) in May June 2014 to characterize flood predictability in complex terrain.
This paper outlines the first earthquake forecast testing experiment for the Japan area conducted within the CSEP framework.
The goal of CSEP is to facilitate earthquake forecast testing that is completely transparent, fully reproducible, and truly prospective.
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