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This study aims to propose a forecasting scheme that enables to make forecasts up to 48 h lead time.
Illustration of the "off-line optimization and online forecasting" scheme for the implementation of the ETAS model in CSEP.
In addition, to ensure that the sample data have the same properties as the required forecasts, a reasonable multi-step-ahead forecasting scheme is designed for HM-TWA.
The space-time ETAS model has been implemented as an "off-line optimization and online forecasting" scheme in the Japan and SCEC CSEP projects.
For this reason, we can use an offline optimization and online forecasting scheme to tackle this problem, as illustrated in Fig. 1.
Apart from the simulation scheme, we also employed a forecasting scheme by using the antecedent observed discharge values in addition to P, T, and PET.
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Mr. Fama was charged with devising and testing forecasting schemes, which invariably failed to work.
This is radical departure from traditional time series forecasting schemes which assume the full availability of historical data.
The North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) project facilitates the development of such multi-model forecasting schemes by providing publicly-available hindcasts and forecasts online.
For comparison, four different forecasting schemes are applied: 1) Direct method: construct an optimal ARIMA model for the system load data in Fig. 2a directly and forecast the system peak load.
The development of a space weather forecast scheme is a test of our physical understanding of solar-terrestrial relationships.
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