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Tetlock got a statistical handle on his task by putting most of the forecasting questions into a "three possible futures" form.
Timing vis a vis Katrina is downright eerie…." It's important to note that most of the failures in protecting New Orleans and nearby communities from the ravages attending Hurricane Katrina had little to do with forecasting questions.
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In a second swipe at the chancellor, the Item Club - which uses the Treasury's own economic model to make its forecasts - questions whether he can afford the £61bn public spending increases he announced a week ago.
8 50 a.m.: This post was updated with a new forecast, additional questions and graphics.
In the e-mails, energy executives, industry lawyers, state geologists and market analysts voice skepticism about lofty forecasts and question whether companies are intentionally, and even illegally, overstating the productivity of their wells and the size of their reserves.
Forecasting the future questions that need to be answered while collecting prospective data makes the design of long-term studies challenging.
The campaign to apply these meteorological techniques to flood forecasting raises important questions about how the probabilistic information these systems provide can be used for what in operational terms is typically a binary decision of whether or not to issue a flood warning.
The forecasts raised momentous questions.
Launched in 2011, the four-year contest required the group to provide forecasts on 500 questions ranging from the future for oil prices to the financial outlook.
Goldman-advised floatation was at 330p November 28 , 20133.37pm GMT Labour: Goldman's Royal Mail share price forecast raises more questions Goldman Sachs' prediction this morning that Royal Mail's share price will have risen to around 610p in 12 month's time is further evidence that the postal operator's flotation may have been bungled, the Labour party has warned.
After achieving sales of $400 million in 2004, though, Natrecor's growth failed to meet forecasts last year after questions arose about its safety and whether it was effective enough to justify a cost of about $500 a treatment, compared with much cheaper alternatives.
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