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This paper aims to analyze and compare various methods of solar photovoltaic power forecasting in terms of characteristics and performance.
"There was a time when weather forecasting... in terms of the use of world's top computers, was high up on that list.
This paper offers a solution for long term probabilistic forecasting in terms of hourly loads, applying the combination of input variable scenario simulation and a probabilistic model to generate forecasts.
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In a rolling out-of-sample forecast framework with smooth-changing parameters, Hong, Sun and Wang (2018, Working paper) propose a data-driven method to determine the optimal rolling window that will yield the best out of sample forecasts in terms of the forecast mean squared error criterion.
While seasonal predictability is often very limited by physical and modeling constraints, harnessing additional predictable components of the climate system may in some cases substantially increase their usable information content, and provide more flexible forecasts in terms of the kinds of management decisions that can be informed.
The philosophical basis views forecasts as information and the combination of forecasts in terms of aggregation of information.
Our test compares forecasts in terms of LL: the larger the LL value, the better the agreement between forecast and observation.
The applicability of density-based approach in dual-porosity gas systems is investigated, and the approach reveals that gas production can be forecast in terms of a rescaled liquid solution that uses depletion-driven parameters, λ and β.
These forecasts are deterministic (point forecast representing our best guess) or probabilistic (providing the forecast in terms of probability of exceedance that reflects a range of possible values for the variable of interest), and are statistical in nature or based on numerical models.
The worse case scenarios, considered more likely by the authors, see global net energy as having already peaked in 2015: "We see in this analysis that even in the most optimistic model… there is a reduction with respect to forecast in terms of the total World production of liquid hydrocarbon net energy, placing the projected growth of global total gross energy supply under serious stress".
There are large differences between UPE and UN forecasts in terms of assumed life expectancy for a number of countries, including France, Italy and Germany.
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