The OBR has been predicting for some time that the "leverage" of households will rise as the recovery progresses, but this is the first time its forecasts have shown the debt ratio surpassing the levels of six years ago.
Month after month, quarter after quarter, since the immediate financial crisis came to an end, the MPC's forecasts have shown productivity recovering, wages picking up, and inflation bouncing back.
Their forecasts have shown that in the case of a tax of about €20, whatever system was selected, the situation with regard to jobs and total consumption would deteriorate, increasing the net deficit in the public accounts, which would remove any margin of manoeuvre for financing accompanying measures and even make it necessary to reduce social transfers [5].
As recent hurricane forecasts have shown meteorology is far from perfect, but surely the French government would have preferred to overreact to a warning than to be caught so unprepared for barbaric attacks.
In economic forecasting, research has shown that trends in increasing or decreasing volumes of housing-related search queries in Google are a more accurate predictor of house sales in the next quarter than the forecasts of real estate economists.
Even in the developed world, data have been disappointing: Citibank's economic-surprise index, which compares published data with the forecast numbers, has shown its biggest decline in a year.
The PTWC system has shown forecast results with successively updated CMT solutions (Wang et al. 2012).
The CPPT study has shown forecast uncertainties with respect to CMTs derived from different research institutions (Jamelot and Reymond 2015).
As this winter has shown, the forecast is not always completely accurate but the country has been aware of a string of big storms coming giving people time to prepare.
Notably, the DBM has shown better earthquake forecasting performances for large earthquakes at both worldwide (Marzocchi and Lombardi, 2008) and regional (Lombardi and Marzocchi, 2009, 2010) scales, with respect to models with a time-independent background rate.
