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Kohonen self-organisation maps are a well know classification tool, commonly used in a wide variety of problems, but with limited applications in time series forecasting context.
Hypothesis testing can be difficult in a nonlinear environment, as revealed by the relatively misleading statistical significance tests in Table 4. Nonlinear modeling may be more appealing in a forecasting context, in which we are often more concerned about overall model fit and prediction than about inference and hypothesis testing.
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Recent work by Dieckmann et al. (2010) suggests that decision makers are not necessarily 'ambiguity averse' in a forecast context, and presenting ranges of probability can have distinct advantages as a way to communicate probability and diagnostic confidence.
Roz Pidcock on the Carbon Brief website: To put the new forecast in context with current global temperatures, 1998 was the warmest year on record - according to the Met Office Hadley Centre global temperature record, with a global temperature of 0.40 degrees above the long term average.
There are three important lessons for stakeholders - in both the private and public sectors - to take from Nestlé's retrenchment: 1. Interpret market growth forecasts in context, know the territory, and do your own math.
Due to this fact, we approached the prediction of last time points in the forecast analysis context where we could adjust the smoothing penalty parameter of SPCA accordingly.
Semseye allows retailers to track and analyse consumers' paths and decision-making processes throughout their stores, via their mobiles, and then delivers predictive forecasting based on context such as weather forecasts.
The classical view treats technology forecasting in the context of a corporate plan [51].
The case of the El Niño costero should be viewed as a lesson for governments and forecasters to heed attention to not only the climate information generated by forecasts, but also the context of the forecast and disaster setting, which is equally important and can influence societal responses to hydrometeorological threats.
In the context of forecasting for renewable energy, it is common to produce point forecasts but it is also important to have information about the uncertainty of the forecast.
Experiment 3 investigated the way in which the between-trials context influenced forecasting.
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Justyna Jupowicz-Kozak
CEO of Professional Science Editing for Scientists @ prosciediting.com