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This has been investigated in situations in which forecasters were able to adjust the statistical forecasts for promotions via a forecasting support system (FSS).
Weather forecasters were able to predict the track of Hurricane Sandy with increasing accuracy as it moved up the Atlantic Coast, turned west to make landfall on the coast of New Jersey and then veered north toward Canada.
Andy Wall, flood forecasting manager at NRW, said that £20m had been invested since 2006 in coastal flood defence schemes and forecasters were able to inform the public of storms days in advance.
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While the quantity and quality of storm-prediction data has exploded in recent years, it is important that forecasters be able to see the whole picture, and help people understand threats in a plain-spoken non-alarmist way.
"So far we've not found any evidence that a single forecaster or group of forecasters was able to purposely skew the results," he says.
Andy Wall, flood forecasting manager at Natural Resources Wales, said £20m had been invested since 2006 in coastal flood defence schemes and forecasters are able to inform the public of storms days in advance.
For example, a study examining the use of probabilistic coherence weighting to aggregate judgements of multiple forecasters was able to show improvements of up to 30% over the established benchmark of a simple equal weighted averaging of forecasts (Karvetski et al., 2013).
"We were able to adapt".
They were able to capitalize.
Economic forecasting is necessarily imprecise: too many things happen for forecasters to be able to foresee all of them.
If lightning-free zones usually precede tornadoes, they said, weather forecasters might be able to watch for these "electrical holes" in the clouds and make better short-term predictions for severe weather, including large hail, heavy rain and tornadoes.
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