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Estimates based on The Economist's poll of forecasters suggest that nominal GDP growth will be 3.7% next year.
Predictions from City forecasters suggest that economic growth will slide from about 2% this year to little more than 1% in 2017.
Many forecasters suggest that the turning point — from jobs being cut to jobs being added — will come by March, assuming the economy continues to grow, as it finally started to do in the third quarter.
If prices remain weak – and many forecasters suggest they will – then from Moscow to Caracas and from Lagos to Tehran governments will start to feel the impact on macroeconomic policy.
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But now The Economist's latest poll of forecasters suggests growth of only 2.1% (see article).
Late last year, The Economist's poll of forecasters suggested that the euro-11 economies would grow by 2.6% this year and the American economy by only 1.9%.
Last October, The Economist's poll of forecasters suggested that America's GDP would grow by 3.5% this year, the euro area's by 3%.
Consensus Economics, which tracks the projections of the main economic forecasters, suggests a rise of 0.5 per cent in GDP this year, increasing to 1.7 per cent next.
Forecasters suggested Mr Modi was on course to secure a clear majority and win the largest number of seats since 1984 when Rajiv Gandhi won a landslide on a wave of sympathy and anguish following the assassination of his mother, Indira Gandhi.
In the markets, all this news was taking its toll: prices for corn and wheat were spiking upwards, rising almost a third on global markets as forecasters suggested grain stockpiles could shrink by as much as 50% as the summer wears on.
They hope to get a more comprehensive (if harder-to-run) version going within a year.Other forecasters suggested as long ago as November that a Niño might be on the way, but all have been surprised by how soon it developed.
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Justyna Jupowicz-Kozak
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