The cell size of 100 m × 100 m and 3 × 3 neighborhood size was chosen for the simulation of land use changes in the study area and land use maps from 2008 to 2020 with 4 year interval were forecasted and showed that the areas of woodland, cropland, wetland and water body tend to decline while the area of built-up tend to increase through 2004 to 2020.
It is shown that for large enough populations the resulting confidence intervals for forecasted population will be very tight, therefore in the case of short term population forecast of larger countries it is enough to forecast the expected population counts.
Figures 4 and 5 in the Appendix show the forecasted volatility and confidence intervals for the above models, with the residuals following normal and Student's t-distribution.
By comparing the simulated interval against the forecasted value planned by short-term mine planning block model 96% of situations included the real values.
sumlimits_{g = 1}^{G} {P_{g}^{t} = PL^{t} - IL^{t} } (6) IL^{t} = sumlimits_{n = 1}^{N} {CP_{n} cdot (1 - s_{n}^{t} )} (7 where PL t is the forecasted system load at time interval t (kW); IL t is the total interrupted load capacity at time t (kW).
Moreover, we estimated that 98%, 94 %, 90, and 91% of observed census counts were within the 95% prediction intervand for the forecasted census.
1) Power balance sumlimits_{i = 1}^{I} {P_{i} (t)} + P_{text{w}} (t) = P_{text{d}} (t),;t = 1,;2, cdots, T (9 where P w(t) is the forecasted wind power output in time interval t, and P d(t) is the load of the power system in the time interval t.
Furthermore, in Fig. 5 (right side) we give the plots of the monthly forecasted LF values with upper and lower 95%% prediction intervals for the year 2014.
w_{k} = L_{k} - G_{k} + x_{k} (1 where w k is the energy exchange between MG and the main grid at time interval k; G k and L k are the forecasted power generation and load respectively at time k, and the network loss is incorporated into L k ; x k is the charge/discharge power of ES equipment; and x k is positive when charging and negative when discharging.
5.3.1 Sales Forecast The following table and chart highlight forecasted sales.
In this paper, the sharpness of the forecasted PDF is assessed by the coverage of the central probability intervals.
