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The larger amounts that will be sold in the scatter market also suggest that the demand from advertisers in the upfront market may not be as strong as forecast weeks ago or that the networks believe they can get higher prices during the actual season — or both.
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As can be seen from Table 4, the best score is obtained by the e-kmf® model in the first forecasting week, with a worsening of the performance between the 5th and 8th forecasting week as shown in Table 5 and Figure 3 as well.
Table 5 and Figure 6 (left) show how the e-kmf® model has a higher reliability for the first and third forecasting month (i.e. from the 1st to the 4th forecasting week and from the 9th to the 12th).
For the CFS-NCEP model there is no general trend and very low values of ACC are shown in Figure 6 (right), i.e. no correlation at all between this model and observed data for every forecasting week, except for the first one.
Later this month, government analysts are expected to release projections showing that the federal budget surplus will be much smaller than they had forecast only weeks ago.
Last March, noting the lengthening commercial forecasts, the American Meteorological Society -- the largest organization of American atmospheric scientists -- issued a statement essentially repudiating the idea that local weather could be accurately forecast two weeks ahead.
Last week, Merrill stunned Wall Street by reporting $8.5 billion in write-downs, far greater than it had forecast just weeks before, and its biggest ever quarterly loss.
That said, keep an eye on Weather Underground (they forecast two weeks out) and pack for changeable elements; it can be 40 degrees one day and 75 the next.
All the models were constructed to forecast 4 weeks in advance.
Still, additional help is urgently required, and more flooding is forecast for weeks ahead.
For national forecasts 1 3 weeks ahead, the correlation between observed ILI incidence and forecast was 0.85 0.96, an improvement over the current surveillance method in France.
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