The forecast was over-lurid and the Foreign Office's lesser mandarins, while also critical of Patten in private, were embarrassed – though not surprised – by Cradock's bluntness.
Pessimists retort that such forecasts are over-spiced.
When the tax take fell, he kept on assuming the fall was temporary, so his forecasts were over-optimistic.Yet these reverses have not chastened Mr Brown.
Last month the IMF warned France that its growth forecasts were over-optimistic and that it would need "further measures", particularly spending cuts, to stay on track.
Davies said in October that while some growth forecasts were "over-optimistic", he believed the level of growing demand for flights was striking and that the UK needed new runways.
But the deficit is rising: even before this tax cut, the official forecast was for $1.8 trillion over the next decade (see chart).
The forecast was for further snowfalls, especially over the weekend of the match.
The planned privatisation of €50 billion-worth of firms and land also looks set to fall short, partly because the forecast prices are over-optimistic and partly because organising a sale every ten days or so is unfeasible.
60% of wheat exports rely on the railway system, 30% of which is currently over-capacity, with a further 23% forecast to be over-capacity in 20 years.
However, there are reasons why this forecast may be over- or under-estimated.
Successive Treasury forecasts have been over-optimistic about the budgetary outlook.In his 2002 budget, for example, Mr Brown forecast net borrowing of £13 billion in 2003-04.
