We develop and use dynamical and statistical modeling techniques to simulate and forecast the variability, seasonality and transmission of infectious agents.
The Caribbean Low Level Jet (CLLJ) index presented here has been used by some authors to understand and forecast rainfall variability in regions of Central America, northern South America and the Caribbean.
The reliability-in-the-small was.0000 and the ratio of the excess forecast variance to the minimum forecast variance was 2.526, indicating that the observed variability of the predictions of the Y-ACNAT-NO was approximately 2.5 times the minimum variability that is necessary.
Wu, H. B. & Wu, L. Methods for Diagnosing and Forecasting Climate Variability 1 400 (China Meteorological Press, 2010).
The trajectory for the variability forecast is a sloping line as well, but it has a much smaller slope.
The merged forecasts exhibit considerable seasonal and spatial variability in forecast skill.
In Troccoli, A., M. S. J. Harrison, D. L. T. Anderson, and S. J. Mason (Eds), Seasonal Climate Variability: Forecasting and Managing Risk, Springer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, 205-234.
In Troccoli, A., M. S. J. Harrison, D. L. T. Anderson, and S. J. Mason (Eds), Seasonal Climate Variability: Forecasting and Managing Risk, Springer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, 259-289.
In Troccoli, A., M. S. J. Harrison, D. L. T. Anderson, and S. J. Mason (Eds), Seasonal Climate Variability: Forecasting and Managing Risk, Springer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, 351-395.
