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For example, a storm embedded in a confluent large-scale flow (i.e. one whose streamlines tend to converge) will generally have less directional track forecast uncertainty, though the timing of the progress of the storm along its track may suffer.
Forecast distributions are found to reliably represent forecast uncertainty.
Ensemble forecasting aims at quantifying this flow-dependent forecast uncertainty.
Daily flow with forecast uncertainty are simulated and used to determine the effect of forecast uncertainty on real-time reservoir operation of the Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR), China.
Fourth, each model provides prediction intervals to capture and quantify forecast uncertainty.
As mentioned in Section 1, there are roughly three methods to quantify the forecast uncertainty.
These approaches can provide end-users with forecast uncertainty information in various ways.
Forecast uncertainty increases with time, too; this effect is indicated by gradually widening prediction intervals.
The heteroscedasticity and non-Gaussianity of forecast uncertainty are effectively addressed.
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The proposed method utilizes updated probabilistic wind power forecasts, effectively mitigating the impacts from forecast uncertainties.
The forecast uncertainties could be also due to the complication of afterslip process.
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