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Last March, noting the lengthening commercial forecasts, the American Meteorological Society -- the largest organization of American atmospheric scientists -- issued a statement essentially repudiating the idea that local weather could be accurately forecast two weeks ahead.
That said, keep an eye on Weather Underground (they forecast two weeks out) and pack for changeable elements; it can be 40 degrees one day and 75 the next.
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Later that year Betfair rose on its first day of trading but plunged to three-quarters of the offer price when it missed forecasts seven weeks later.
Almanacs forecast twelve months' worth of weather.
The forecast came two weeks after Qantas unveiled a plan to separate its international business from its profitable domestic unit and follows a bruising 12 months of wrangling with unions that led to the grounding of its fleet for two days last year.
But Raymond Ban, the senior vice president for meteorology at the Weather Channel, says most meteorologists think that forecasting beyond two weeks cannot be done.
We took the forecasts published two weeks before release of actual results.
There was one occasion [the 2012 Budget] when the forecast changed with two weeks to go, I think due to an error on a spreadsheet, and we were £10bn adrift.
The revised sales forecast comes just two weeks after Mr. Tate said that Williams-Sonoma expected Internet sales to increase fourfold this year, to $40 million, as customers buy more from the Williams-Sonoma and Pottery Barn sites.
Historical averages are useful, they say, but it is a fool's errand to forecast anything beyond about two weeks.
Moody's Chief Executive Ray McDaniel Ray McDaniel said during a presentation at a Bear Stearns conference at the Breakers Hotel in West Palm Beach that he expects to earn $1.90 to $2.00 per share for 2008, compared with a forecast announced five weeks ago of $2.17 to $2.25 per share.
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