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National broadcaster NHK and other media forecast turnout at around 52% – seven percentage points down from the last election in 2012 and the lowest since the end of the second world war.
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— NATE SILVER Although the polls made pretty good predictions of the election outcome tonight, forecasting turnout is harder.
Electoral officials forecast a final turnout of 62.3%.
Yousef Khaddam, an activist in Sabahi's movement, forecast a big turnout for the anti-Mursi rally in Cairo.
But Bruce N. Gyory, a Democratic consultant whose turnout forecasts have become required reading for party strategists, said he expected that despite all the attention to the Tea Party this fall, it might not generate big numbers at the ballot box beyond western New York, Mr. Paladino's home turf.
I've found the early vote is a decent calibration tool in addition to comparable past elections, to draw upon when making national and state turnout forecasts.
As the polls closed Sunday evening, monitors forecast that the final turnout would reach 67percentt, compared with 61percentt in the first round two weeks ago.
However, no one forecast a nearly 85% turnout.
Rhodes Cook, a non-partisan political analyst, argues that a rise in turnout usually forecasts a change in party control (as happened in 1992 and 2000).
Mr. Obama would lead by two percentage points in the consensus forecast weighing the states by their 2004 turnout.
And even as the truth about turnout this year is impossible to forecast, the candidates and their strategists have elaborate theories of their own -- theories that are based, it turns out, on no more than the sort of turnout each one wants.
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CEO of Professional Science Editing for Scientists @ prosciediting.com