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"I would want to see that there was the prospect of progress in the forecast toward achieving both much higher levels of employment and, eventually, higher inflation, closer to my 2 percent target".
"To not trigger something, I would want to see that there was the prospect of progress in the forecast toward achieving both much higher levels of employment and, eventually, higher inflation, closer to my 2 percent target," he said.
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Drawing on prior research on affective forecasting, predictions are hypothesized to be driven by an anchoring-and-adjustment process that skews forecasts toward the attractiveness of fragments when judged in isolation.
That is one reason why despite President Clinton's high poll ratings and a booming economy, Mr. Abramowitz's forecast was toward the lower end of the range, expecting Mr. Gore to get 53.2percentt.
Tiffany, a luxury jeweler, on Wednesday posted a higher quarterly profit and forecast earnings toward the high end of Wall Street estimates for this year, which it said began with good Valentine's Day sales.
That's why the forecast has moved toward Mr. Obama over the last several days.
But if you look at the right-hand column of this page, you'll notice that our forecast has moved toward President Obama over the past several days.
As Election Day draws nearer, the forecast will converge toward the now-cast, until eventually they are exactly the same on Nov. 6.
The streamlined shape of a woman whose arms have the aspect of wings, it forecast his turn toward biomorphic form a decade later.
Generally speaking, if the FiveThirtyEight forecast moves appreciably toward President Obama, the tenor of the article is going to be favorable to him — and likewise for Mitt Romney, if the same is true for him.
Thus, the forecast has moved toward Mr. Obama over the past few days; it now gives him a 74.5 percent chance of winning the Electoral College, his highest figure to date.
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Justyna Jupowicz-Kozak
CEO of Professional Science Editing for Scientists @ prosciediting.com