It's going to take a few more days for the forecast model to catch up to the news, and I don't think there's any alternative but to keep an open mind about the polls for right now.
The ferry's skipper told me there was no certainty of a return journey later on thanks to an ominous forecast, so I had to catch the same ride back only 20 minutes later.
Although the FiveThirtyEight forecasts of Florida struggled to catch up to the shifting momentum in Florida at times, they wound up having a very good night, predicting a 14.7 point win for Mr. Romney, just about the lead he now holds over Mr. Gingrich.
Customers in some Oslo aerobics studios are reportedly cutting their classes short to catch the forecast.
Mr. Romney continues to make gains in the FiveThirtyEight forecast, which had been sluggish to catch up to his post-debate bounce.
And it may take the forecast model a few days to catch up to Mr. Romney's gains, if he's made them.
The Northern Irishman said: "Tiger's going to be a tough guy to catch but according to the forecast, we are going to have strong winds.
According to estimates by the Economist Intelligence Unit, our sister organisation, even on the rosiest forecasts it will take Poland, say, 59 years to catch up with the EU average of GDP per head.
"When demand for wireless service outpaces a forecast, it can take six months to a year for some networks to catch up". he said.
The overall assumption behind these forecasts is that countries with lower per capita income will continue to catch up but around 2030 all countries' exogenous productivity growth will be converging slowly towards the steady state value of 1.7 % per annum.
