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This paper outlines the first earthquake forecast testing experiment for the Japan area conducted within the CSEP framework.
We propose the use of MGR in the earthquake forecast testing experiment by the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability for Japan.
An earthquake forecast testing experiment was started by the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) for Japan on November 1, 2009 (Nanjo et al., 2009).
The main purpose of this paper is to give a summary of the first earthquake forecast testing experiment for the Japan area conducted within the CSEP framework.
The region of surveillance R considered here is the Japan mainland region as defined by the Japan Earthquake Forecast Testing Center (Fig. 2).
As in the case of other CSEP testing centers, the Japanese testing center defined Japan as a natural laboratory and initiated a prospective earthquake forecast testing experiment.
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In the tsunami forecast tests, λ is empirically fixed, respectively, for using the data from the operating offshore observatories, and for using the PPP ship height data (Inazu and Saito 2014).
The model has been submitted to the Earthquake Forecasting Testing Experiment for Japan.
The area has been specified by the Earthquake Forecasting Testing Experiment for Japan committee.
As this model will be compared to other forecast techniques within the Earthquake Forecasting Testing Experiment for Japan initiative, we do not perform benchmark comparisons here.
In collaboration with CSEP, the Earthquake Forecasting Testing Experiment for Japan is focused on evaluating models that forecast the seismicity of Japan (Research group "Earthquake Forecast System based on Seismicity of Japan", 2009).
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