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ENM can forecast species' potential geographic ranges with reasonable precision and within the short screening time required by proposed U.S. invasive species legislation.
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Accordingly, our results stress the need of incorporating dispersal variability into those predictive models that aim at forecasting species distribution according to global change.
Forecasting species responses to climatic warming requires knowledge of how temperature impacts may be exacerbated by other environmental stressors, hypoxia being a principal example in aquatic systems.
Forecasting future species distributions under climate change scenarios using Ecological Niche Models (ENM) is common practice.
Consequently, efforts to define the importance of those two environmental variables on developmental stages are required to enable forecasting estuarine species' future distributions.
Spatial analysis forecasts more species isolation and declining biodiversity at the end of this century relative to current and past levels.
Our work shows that modern modelling techniques can provide useful forecasts of species distributions in unsurveyed parts of landscapes and provide valuable contributions to conservation and management planning.
A potential criticism of forecasts from species distribution modeling is the self-fulfilling nature of the endeavor.
In addition, some authors have questioned the validity of models based only on climatic variables for forecasting future species distributions [74], [75], since many factors other than climate play an important role in determining species distributions and their dynamics over time.
Nonetheless, our data suggest that understanding changes in soil moisture, whether directly related to changes in precipitation or indirectly though changes in temperature or plant cover, will be critical when forecasting what species will be able to establish in the future.
This finding has important implications for the forecasting of species' abundance and distribution changes under future climate change scenarios, and highlights the need to consider millennial scale trends alongside contemporary data for understanding species' responses to climate change.
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