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Shortage index reduces as forecast skill increases and ensemble forecast outperforms deterministic forecast at a similar forecast skill level.
As forecast skill diminishes with increasing lead time, the monthly forecasts approach climatology.
Forecast skill and reliability are assessed through leave-one-year-out cross validation.
In contrast, forecast skill in most wet summer and dry winter periods is generally low.
The merged forecasts exhibit considerable seasonal and spatial variability in forecast skill.
The forecast skill of this model was assessed for 3437 OS using contingency tables.
The statistical significance of the forecast skill could be assessed for 64.2% of these OS.
The 1/32° system also exhibits improved forecast skill in relation to the 1/16° system.
The results indicate the significance of forecast skill in forecast-based reservoir operation.
"Passive microwave observations from satellites drive three- to seven-day forecast skill," he said.
The forecast skill increases closer to the peak of the season.
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