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All events occurred in cells with relatively high forecast rates.
However, in order to submit our model we must forecast rates for all Japan.
Their forecast rates are based on using data on large earthquakes during the past 120 years.
Many of the target earthquakes occur in regions where the combined model has high forecast rates.
We randomized forecast rates of earthquakes by constraining the sum of the forecast rates to be equal to the total number of observed earthquakes, ignoring the Gutenberg-Richter relation (Gutenberg and Richter, 1944).
For other models, the same color bar is used to represent the forecast rates of M≥4.95 earthquakes.
Similar(48)
But it faces a sharp slowdown in growth, to a (probably optimistic) government forecast rate of 3.7% next year.
When δ1 is very small, the forecast rate is too low (an underprediction); and, when δ2 is very small, the forecast rate is too high (an over-prediction).
The darker the color, the higher the forecast rate of earthquakes.
Obviously, the forecast rate of earthquakes was far less than the observed number of earthquakes for this year.
The figure shows that recent large earthquakes in Japan usually occur in regions with high forecast rate.
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Justyna Jupowicz-Kozak
CEO of Professional Science Editing for Scientists @ prosciediting.com