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"The error we're seeing in the forecast of something like the storm on the East Coast is probably close to the limit of technology today," he said.
The industry standard is to publish a forecast of something called the "incumbent party two-way vote share," which is the percentage of votes the incumbent party's presidential candidate gets with third-party candidates excluded.
If the Fed were ordered to focus solely on inflation, it would simply target its forecast of something like "the core personal consumption deflator". Then, if the Fed missed its target, it would just say, "Oops," issue some lame excuse couched in incomprehensible jargon, and continue doing whatever it wanted to do.
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Was I smart enough to forecast the success of something like 24?
Hence the higher spending in Macau, as people move their money from China to overseas, even though the government has forecast something of a recovery and 7.5 percent growth for 2013.
Forecasts, by contrast, are evidence-based judgement calls on the likelihood of something happening.
It is my utterly unscientific forecast that something is stirring in France, and not just in the loins of French men and women.
In such an iffy economy, accurate forecasting -- always something of an oxymoron -- is even iffier.
I don't think forecasting is something within the realm of human possibility".
Its growth forecast of 1.3% looks optimistic.
That beat the analysts' forecast of $664 million.
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Justyna Jupowicz-Kozak
CEO of Professional Science Editing for Scientists @ prosciediting.com