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Any sea level forecast must be interpreted carefully: things could be better, or worse.
DeLillo said long ago that the mood of the future would be determined not by writers but by terrorists; and those who mocked him for this forecast must have felt even worse than the rest of us did on September 12 , 2001
Do I stop the train or not?"Another problem with the ensemble approach, particularly for high-resolution forecasting, is that it requires far more computing power, since every forecast must be repeated several times and there may not be time to do that before the forecast has gone out of date.
12.08pm GMT In the comments underneath, Ed Hawkins, a climate scientist working at the University of Reading, has posted a response: This experimental forecast must be viewed in the context of the worldwide efforts of many groups who are making predictions for the coming few years.
Hence, our LNG growth forecast must take into account regulatory drivers as well as operational drivers of eco-innovation.
Naturally, a limitation of this method is that the input forecast must have some information not already contained in the starting forecast.
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And forecasts must be expressed numerically, so there can be no hiding behind vague verbiage.
But what happens when forecasts must be made without the benefit of, say, the mountains of polling data that inform Silver's statistics?
I have (in vain, so far) argued that, if central banks are right to hold rates so low, then future growth will be slow, so earnings forecasts must also be revised down.
Long-term forecasts must be taken with a grain of salt — they "have no operational role," as the French demographer Hervé Le Bras has written; they just help "staging and exaggerating today's fears".
(Weather) forecasts must be distinguished from warnings and alerts.
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Justyna Jupowicz-Kozak
CEO of Professional Science Editing for Scientists @ prosciediting.com