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First the two scenarios: The consensus forecast is based on the Blue Chip survey and the Survey of Professional Forecasters, as of February.
Correct: The forecast is based on parameters like inflation and interest rates.
But a closer inspection shows that the Rutgers report's doomsday forecast is based on selective use of census data.
This forecast is based on decision tree analyses of three main products and two collateral business opportunities.
The short-term forecast is based on a single calculation with the best initial condition, but 1 month forecast is based on statistics of 26 different simulations with slightly different initial conditions (ensemble forecast).
The forecast is based on a US market recovery which would see sales of 12.5m units next year, 14.5m in 2010 and 15.5m in 2011.
His higher 2016 price forecast is based on the idea that the US dollar will soften and emerging market demand will improve later this year.
Mr. Harmon's forecast is based on the relatively strong correlation in recent years between Lasik procedures and the Conference Board's index of consumer confidence in the economy.
Similar(3)
The forecast was based on the median of 29 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey.
The 100-year forecast was based on current consumption rates, about 1.1 billion tons a year.
Even that forecast was based on prices slightly lower than they are now.
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Justyna Jupowicz-Kozak
CEO of Professional Science Editing for Scientists @ prosciediting.com