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We used a Poisson regression model to forecast incidence of ILI based on medication sales.
36 Our models are not the first to be used to forecast mental illness needs in England and Wales, 37 though we believe this is the first attempt to forecast incidence rather than prevalence in the community.
For this reason, we investigated other potential data sources associated with ILI that do not rely on past information to forecast incidence and are flexible enough to detect unusual increases in incidence.
Malaria forecasting is now conducted in many countries and typically uses data on environmental risk factors, such as climatic conditions, to forecast incidence for a specific geographic area over a certain period of time.
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Whilst this simplistic approach was useful for screening diseases, it will not suffice in monitoring or forecasting incidence.
We forecast the incidence, presuming the existence of a maximum incidence.
In India, their model forecast malaria incidence in particular regions with more than 70% sensitivity.
The combined model was then used to forecast the incidence of hepatitis E in 2013.
The model was developed to forecast the incidence of hepatitis E in Shanghai.
Finally, the fitted ARIMA model was used to forecast the incidence of HFRS of the years 2009 to 2011.
Our first aim was to forecast the incidence of THR operations in Sweden in the coming decades.
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