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Statistical ensemble postprocessing always requires computer software for data processing, model fitting, forecast generation, and forecast verification.
Forecast Generation 1x (FGen 1x) produces a 72-h forecast of E10.7 at high solar activity with 1-sigma uncertainties at the 8% level.
For model optimization and forecast generation, we restrict our analysis to the period after 1998.
Note that temporal changes in seis-micity rates are not taken into account in the RI forecast generation.
We therefore set t0 as old as 1 January 1998, and used all events up to time t2 in the forecast generation: t1 = t2.
An RI-type model based on a non-declustered catalog may overestimate future seismicity rates near the epicenters of large earthquakes in the past, because aftershocks that dominate seismicity near those epicenters are included in the forecast generation.
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All SOLAR2000 irradiance products from each of the versions, grades, and forecast generations are compliant with the ISO CD 21348 solar irradiance draft standard being developed as a standard method to specify all solar irradiances for use by space systems and materials users.
Open image in new window Fig. 4 Forecasted generation curves Open image in new window Fig. 5 Forecasted daily load curves.
Forecasted generation curves for solar and wind units, and schedules for thermal and hydro units were used in Fig. 4 in conjunction with forecasted load curves in Fig. 5 to estimate near-term network condition.
Phase 3: SDR forecast interval generation.
The eventual goal is to integrate highly accurate real-time forecasting with generation resources linked by cloud-based computing networks.
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