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Above, we make the claim that network proximity based forecasting will allow us to leverage the considerable transitivity in transnational terrorism and forecast edge innovations: to predict a terrorist edge from one state to another where no such edge existed within a given window of time.
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Two empirical features of this network are particularly relevant to our forecasting approach: edge innovation and transitivity.
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First, we contribute to the literature on edge forecasting in complex networks.
We create an edge forecasting framework for the transnational terrorist network by integrating a deterministic similarity-based edge prediction method developed by Liben-Nowell and Kleinberg[2] with a model-based probabilistic approach developed by Hanneke, Fu, and Xing[3].
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Justyna Jupowicz-Kozak
CEO of Professional Science Editing for Scientists @ prosciediting.com