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Feder noted, for example, that Bueno de Mesquita's model predicted in a forecast done of Italy's budget one year a specific figure that turned out to be off by only 1percentthethe C.I.A. method would predict just a deficit.
(He "got the bull's-eye twice as often," Feder wrote in his report, which was declassified in 1993. No other reports have been declassified since). Feder noted, for example, that Bueno de Mesquita's model predicted in a forecast done of Italy's budget one year a specific figure that turned out to be off by only 1percentthethe C.I.A. method would predict just a deficit.
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