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Such a situation will significantly deteriorate the tsunami forecast capability proposed above.
Incorporating the seismic/geodetic fault model estimation into the tsunami forecast above possibly compensates for the deteriorated forecast capability.
The Nankai Trough great earthquake tsunami is used as an example for the evaluation of the tsunami forecast capability.
Among the two regime models, the LSTAR-LST-GARCH model has the best forecast capability (RMSE = 0.0000047).
Terrestrial AIS stations may fail to receive successive ship data due to strong ground shaking during a great earthquake, which will deteriorate the forecast capability.
This property of the model imposes a restriction on proper model validation with respect to the out-of-sample prediction or forecast capability of GFMAPR.
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This characteristic feature leads to deterioration in the forecast capabilities of traditional models such as the ARCH and GARCH models.
To conclude, declustering a seismic catalog does not necessarily improve the forecast capabilities of our RI-based approach.
We realize that assessment of forecast capabilities of the individual models based on a single trial alone is insufficient.
It should be noted that heteroscedasticity is a strong factor that diminishes the forecast capabilities of the model.
(iii) LSTAR-LST-GARCH-MLP and LSTAR-LST-GARCH-RBF showed gains in forecast capabilities which concentrate especially on the out-of-sample forecasting.
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