In a new study, researchers have used machine learning teaching computers to recognize patterns in large data sets to make accurate forecasts about which animals might harbor dangerous viruses, bacteria, and fungi.
In particular, they mention the work of Luksza and Lassig (2014), who develop a fitness model that enables improved forecasting about which of a variety of closely related existing strains of epidemic influenza are likely to predominate in future years.
The paper shows that the pattern in earnings announcements returns for Borders holds in general for seasonal firms: high earnings announcement returns can be forecast using past information about which quarters contain higher than usual earnings.
In Tetlock's eyes, better forecasting means not just making better predictions but also gathering data afterward about which predictions were right and wrong.
Another category: companies about which the analysts are in sharp disagreement over earnings forecasts.
Fire managers were concerned about the forecast, which calls for high temperatures early next week.
Rick Santorum, in third place in the Florida polls, performed quite well at the debate and could finish toward the top end of his forecast range, which runs up to about 20 percent of the vote.
The FiveThirtyEight forecast model, which is fairly aggressive about accounting for a candidate's momentum, now projects Mr. Huntsman to receive 15.6 percent of the vote in Tuesday's New Hampshire primary, putting him in third place, about equidistant between Mr. Paul and Rick Santorum.
In Ohio, polls split the uprights between our forecast there, which projects Mr. Obama ahead by about two percentage points.
The FiveThirtyEight forecast model, which is based on the polls, projects about a 9-point win for him and gives him an 88 percent chance of victory.
