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"Economic data bearing on past months or quarters may be less useful than usual for our forecasts," he said.
That candidates like Mr. Paul have led in other recent polls of the state is of consequence for our forecasts, but may not matter as far as expectations go, since The Des Moines Register poll has received much more news media attention.
This should not cause a problem for our forecasts.
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John Ryding, chief economist at Bear , Stearnsin New York, wrote in a note to clients, "The improving picture for capital expenditures painted by this report bodes well for our forecast that growth will accelerate to 4percentt in the second half of the year".
For the nodes where the b-value could not be computed due to completeness issues, an average b-value was assigned for our forecasting algorithm.
This can be associated with the fact that the weighted average of the previous values is the basis for our forecast.
Additionally, the narrower widths of the 95% prediction intervals for our forecasting model relative to the forecasting model based only on census trends over time, suggest that more precise predictions can be obtained using our forecasting model.
Without a clearer direction on margins we cannot see any basis for changing our forecasts at this stage.
In the section that follows, we present an ensemble-based method that can be simultaneously used to (i) obtain more reliable census forecasts and (ii) obtain prediction intervals for our census forecasts.
For example, Fig. 10 compares our forecasts for SREs with those for precipitation at Tokyo produced by the Japan Meteorological Agency.
Our forecasts for 2012 are for 8.2% for China, 6.9% for India, 3.0% for Brazil, roughly the same as in January, and slightly higher for Russia at 4.0%.
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