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Predictability is found to be stronger for longer forecasting horizons.
However, our model outperforms that of Perez et al. [12] for longer forecasting horizons.
But here we want to mention that it keeps almost the same error level for longer forecasting horizons where the forecasting accuracy is not significantly worse than the best model.
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To summarize, we find that the overall forecasting performance improves for longer forecast horizons.
In general, we obtain the most accurate predictions for longer forecast horizons (h 6).
This may be important for currently steep increases in survival improvements as well as for longer forecast horizons.
Comparing total log-likelihood values of three models in Tables 1, 5, 6, and 7, we found that the MGR model shows a tendency to improve for longer forecast periods such as three, five, or seven years.
This overestimation however, becomes more pronounced for the longer forecasts.
Furthermore, the estimated MAPE and correlations among the predicted and observed census between our forecasting model and an approach based solely on census trends over time, suggest that incorporating patient-specific information has the capacity to improve census predictions, especially for the longer forecasts (i.e 3, 5, and 7 day forecasts).
In her speech, Forbes listed what she sees as five keys risks around the Bank's forecast for the economy, published in November: stronger global growth than anticipated by the Bank; oil prices staying lower for longer than forecast; how big an effect a stronger pound has on the economy; faster productivity growth; and whether the Bank has been too optimistic about labour supply.
Reports of damage to oil fields have heightened fears that output could be disrupted for longer than initially forecast, possibly for years.
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