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The correlation between observed and forecasted incidences was assessed for each forecasting horizon (1, 2, and 3 weeks ahead) for the entire 2003 04 influenza season (September 15 , 2003 August 22 , 2004and for the preepidemic and epidemic weeks (October 6, 2003 January 4, 2004).
Also, for each forecasting model generated, we use a phase fix procedure to adjust time phase distortions that appear in financial time series.
The MAE, MAPE and MASE should be provided as site-specific measures for each forecasting horizon, as summary measures for each site, and finally as summary measures for each forecasting horizon across all sites (within a study).
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An optimistic and pessimistic forecast was drawn up for each forecast.
Plot the path or projected revenues over time in each forecast, generating a set of lines, one for each forecast.
As the autocorrelation function and the availability of data depends on the forecast period considered, different effective sample sizes and, hence, different confidence intervals are obtained for each forecast period, which prevents the grey shading in Fig. 1 from following a straight line along the forecast time.
The one-sided 95% confidence level with a t-distribution is represented in grey, where the number of degrees of freedom has been computed taking into account the autocorrelation of the observational time series, which are different for each forecast time.
The selected equations for each forecast horizon are consistent with the time frame of real-time nowcasting exercises: the first one includes mainly information on the expected evolution of economic activity, while the second and third equations rely more on information on observed business outcomes.
Lastly, the performance of runtime is examined as the average execution time needed for each forecast.
In this study, we simulate K = 10,000 times for each forecast.
The ACC provides information that is very useful for understanding the reliability of the forecast from the 1st to the 12th week for each forecast initialization month.
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