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Every year the C.D.C. studies flu patterns in Asia, Hawaii and the western United States and tries to predict which strains are most likely to cause the next year's epidemic, Dr. Abid said.
The study also has an answer to why flu patterns are so different between tropical and temperate areas.
This innovative effort to track the spread of flu is based on the popularity of web search terms that Google researchers have linked to actual flu patterns.
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When the researchers looked at information from the Census Bureau and the federal Department of Transportation, they found that the regional spread of the flu correlated closely with commuting patterns.
The researchers also found different gene expression patterns after the flu vaccination in younger and older people.
One hallmark of a pandemic flu would be an unusual pattern of illnesses -- lots of cases, possibly cases that are more severe than normal and, possibly, flu infections outside the normal flu season.
A recession has much the same pattern as the flu — starting with vague feelings of malaise and quickly building in misery until a patient's activities are drastically curtailed.
Mauboussin's research shows that networks tend to spread in the same pattern as a flu epidemic; Given the right amount of interactivity and contagion, both epidemics and networks diffuse along an S-curve.
This is the reverse of the pattern seen in seasonal flu, which kills thousands of old people every winter.
When this new strain of H1N1 influenza emerged last spring, experts feared that it might follow the pattern of the 1918 flu, the world's deadliest epidemic.
In addition, Indonesia's decision upsets the pattern for making seasonal flu vaccines -- by choosing among hundreds of samples sent in voluntarily from all over the world -- and could set a dangerous example for other countries.
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