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Conversely, when the HSBC flash index is above that of the official measure, the economy appears to be heading for a soft spot.
The flash index is based on 85 percent to 90 percent of total purchasing manager survey responses, which are to be published in full in about a week.
The flash index is the first significant Chinese data point in the third quarter and signals that improvement in the economy that began in the second quarter may be broadening as pro-growth government policies take effect.
And the "Flash Index" (a measure of future economic growth developed at the University of Illinois) indicates the state's economy ended 2013 on a strong note, which "engendered considerable optimism for 2014".
Meanwhile, a University of Illinois study released last week reported a glimmer of good financial news for Illinois: The state's economy expanded for the first time since 2008, according to the monthly U. of I. Flash Index.
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While there is significant intraday variation in the Flash Crash index and the Percent of Aggressive HFTs index, the averages of the indexes are persistent for individual securities and predictive at least one day in advance.
Markit's Flash US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index rose to 54.9 this month from 54.3, and the pace of hiring in the sector increased.
The HSBC flash manufacturing index for October came in at 50.9, up from 50.4 in October, an optimistic sign for the mining sector since China is such a key customer for commodities.
The HSBC flash manufacturing index for October in China came in at 50.9, up from 50.4 in October, an optimistic sign for the mining sector since China is such a key customer for commodities.
Figure 5. AbleMarkets Flash Crash Index for NYSE SPY, covering August-November 2014. Figure 6.
The Flash Crash Index, calculated a day ahead, detects market microstructure conditions that make a specific market or any financial instrument prone to flash crashes on the following trading day.
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