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Statistical ensemble postprocessing always requires computer software for data processing, model fitting, forecast generation, and forecast verification.
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Identifying the autocorrelation structure is helpful to develop the best fitted forecasting model of the load factors.
As noted above in evaluation of the model's goodness-of-fit, forecast errors reflect modelling imperfections as well as random variability, limiting somewhat the sensitivity of surveillance to detect smaller anomalies.
The model fitting and forecasting results are shown in Fig. 3.
So it is inappropriate to directly use the daily data of these exogenous variables in fitting and forecasting.
Fitting and forecasting results from the empirical study have shown superior performances of the model over a selection of well-known mortality models in the current literature.
The velocity attenuation equation is fitted to forecast the flight distance of EFP.
The commonly used Gaussian function is adopted to fit the forecast data.
Some previous studies [ 30, 31] in China also used ARIMA model to fit and forecast HFRS incidence of some regions, but they had the same problem that the number of observations was not enough, which led to the instability of their forecast results.
In general, it can be helpful to fit the forecasting models with a large number of chains and iterations to explore the parameter space exhaustively.
It is indicated that the proposed time-varying model can provide more accurate fitted and forecasted results, and is more suitable to be used to evaluate the reinforcement effect of dangerous dam.
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