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For asset-dependent, bubble-prone economies, a cyclical recovery — even when assisted by aggressive monetary and fiscal accommodation — isn't a given.
Fiscal accommodation was unnecessary as a macroeconomic tool at that point, but the red ink kept flowing.Another pivot is then possible, to the argument that crowding out in the 2000s was a good thing, because any additional private borrowing would simply have done more to inflate the housing bubble.
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"No amount of fiscal or monetary accommodation, however, can compensate for the necessary structural reforms in the euro area," he said.
All G-20 countries have pledged to maintain fiscal and monetary accommodation for as long as is required to ensure a stable recovery.
Worse yet, unprecedented monetary accommodation and fiscal stimulus programs are still struggling to break the vicious cycle that engulfs real economies and capital markets.
On the eve of the G-20 meeting in Pittsburgh, there remain significant divides over the timing and scope of exit strategies from monetary accommodation, the path toward fiscal consolidation and the drive for financial regulatory reform.
While some might argue that a hawkish central bank would simply use the opportunity of increased fiscal stimulus to provide less monetary accommodation, actual central-bank behaviour suggests sensible fiscal policy would have made a difference.
In the euro area, the situation calls for a policy game changer, with urgent steps to banking union (now finally moving ahead), fiscal integration, phased fiscal consolidation and monetary accommodation.
"The right policy mix for the United States is one of continued monetary accommodation alongside moves to put fiscal balances on a stronger footing," the IMF said.
Such accommodation is already implied in the fiscal relationships between levels of government under decentralisation but, in the health sector at least, sound cost estimates have been lacking.
At the same time, monetary accommodation should continue where output gaps are negative, supplemented by fiscal measures where fiscal space permits.
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