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Even among the 33 cases where the final polling margin in a state was within five percentage points, however, the polling average identified the winner correctly in 30 cases.
Final polling suggested Nigel Farage's party has shrugged off a series of embarrassing revelations about candidates to "win" the elections.
Pennsylvania has historically had quite accurate polling, with the final polling average missing the eventual margin there by just one percentage point on average between 1996 and 2008.
The final polling conducted across the EU by Votewatch Europe has the Greens falling to around 44 seats from 58 in the current parliament.
Guy Molyneux, a Democratic pollster, points out that in the past four elections with a sitting president, the incumbent's actual vote was almost exactly the same as his final polling number.
There are not really any recent precedents in which a candidate has led by something like 49 percent to 46 percent in the final polling average, as Mr. Obama does now in Ohio, and has wound up losing the state.
Similar(42)
The final polls are being conducted.
Final polls had put him close to outright victory.
However, the final polls were nearly spot on in 2005.
beat Wisconsin in the Rose Bowl and finished undefeated and No. 2 in the final polls.
Its final poll showed Mr Kerry up by three points among registered voters.
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Justyna Jupowicz-Kozak
CEO of Professional Science Editing for Scientists @ prosciediting.com