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Together, the lack of deformation, the VT earthquake swarms, the predominantly normal VT faulting, and the elevated SO2 fluxes suggest that a release of high-temperature gas from shallow magma occurred in late August 2014, initiating the chain of events which pressurized the shallow hydrothermal system and led to the fatal eruption 1 month later.
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This dominance of smaller events reflects at least three main factors related to: the short time period of recording; systematic changes in recording of both eruptions and fatal incidents back in time that depend on eruption magnitude; and rapid population growth.
This is not always the same as the date of the fatal incident within an eruption.
The relationship between numbers of fatal incidents, numbers of fatalities, and eruption magnitude is here examined by dividing the data into Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) bins, using VEI (Newhall and Self, 1982) as a measure of magnitude.
These 31 fatal incidents included the eruptions of Tambora and Nevado del Ruiz, which were removed from the sample.
In times of eruption 480 fatalities are recorded in 69 fatal incidents.
Fig. 7 The relationship between eruption size (VEI), the fatal cause, number of fatalities (bubble size) and fatal incident distance.
A single eruption can have multiple fatal incidents and can include fatalities at a range of distances from a range of fatal causes.
The tendency for fatal incident distances to increase with eruption explosivity is illustrated in Fig. 6 for eruptions of VEI 5 and 6.
Just two fatal incidents in VEI ≥5 eruptions are recorded within 5 km of volcanoes.
Thus, rather than proximal fatal incidents from large-magnitude eruptions being absent, within this distance bin they are just relatively less likely than those from small-magnitude eruptions.
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