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Equation 3 below expresses the market income, ( Y ), of an individual farm i in year t.
The term ( {overline{Y}}_{ci} ) represents the mean market income or alternatively output of farm ( i ) during the period.
Let aij be the directed contact rate from farm j to farm i in a particular year.
From these 1000 samples, the predicted probability was estimated for each individual IPRAVE farm i as: ρ̅ i = (number of times farm i was positive) / 1000.
Let Λ i represent the force of infection for farm i due to sources other than movements.
Here (for the case b = 1) βN i a is the weighted probability of infection of farm i per infected farm per day.
We used the following method to obtain model predictions of the probability that each farm i is infected, ρ̅ i, for i = 1 to 461.
We assume that if a susceptible farm i on day t receives Mij t) cattle from an infected farm j on which a fraction xj is infected, the chance that farm i will become infected due to this movement event is 1 − (1 − x j ) M ij (c.f., Green et al., 2006).
The only farm I knew was Pepperidge.
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