As it turned out, the Nevada results weren't that far from our forecasts, which I had been nervous about because they were based on only two polls and because Nevada polling has been erratic in the past.
Thanks to computer models, the odds on a freakish storm or earthquake are better known, epidemiologists are more successful at tracking diseases, and even man-made crises such as banking debacles and stockmarket crashes can be catalogued and studied to produce better (though, as we shall see, still far from perfect) forecasts.
Mr Dimon is far from alone in forecasting healthy growth for the banking industry.Glenn Schorr, an analyst at Nomura in New York, neatly summarises much of the thinking among senior investment bankers.
Among teen retailers, Pacific Sunwear of California had a 3.2% dip, not far from the 2.9% forecast.
Black is the first to admit that rate forecasting is far from an exact science, wedded as it is to economic statistics that are hardly consistent.
The current account deficit – made up of the trade deficit, plus losses on overseas ventures – came in at £22.4bn in the fourth quarter last year, far above forecasts from City economists and down only slightly from a record £22.8bn deficit in the third quarter.
Far from increasing revenue at the forecast double-digit rates, Autonomy's revenue started to drop precipitously.
Its inflation forecasts of 0.6% for the euro area next year and 1.0% for 2016 are slightly more pessimistic than the EU's own forecasts, and far from the European Central Bank's target of just below 2%.
Fair's forecasting record is far from perfect — he, too, got the result wrong in 1992 and 2000 — but his equation, which he maintains online for all to see, does a good job of summarizing the relationships that exist in the data, going back to 1916.
