In a growing number of countries, fertility is falling below replacement rate.
America is the only rich country that, having fallen below the replacement rate, has risen back above it.Except in a few extraordinary cases Hong Kong, Macao, parts of eastern Germany—fertility has not fallen to the very low rate of 1.0.
Japan's birth rate fell below the replacement rate of 2.1 in the early 1970s.
"In our view, global fertility will fall to the replacement rate in less than 15 years," Mr. Sanyal wrote.
At various times in modern history — during war or famine — birthrates have fallen below the replacement rate, to "low" or "very low" levels.
Even in many middle-income and poor countries, the level has fallen below the replacement rate of about 2.1 — to 1.89 in Vietnam and 1.9 in Brazil.
In both America and Europe, the post-war baby boom gave way to a bust in the 1970s, and fertility fell below the replacement rate of just over two per woman.
Vietnam's total fertility rate has been dropping steadily and has now fallen below the replacement rate, and it seems clear that as women gain increasing financial and social freedom it will plunge further, as it has in other wealthy Confucian societies like Singapore and Japan.Finally, the Netherlands is a strange hybrid of progressive Scandinavia and conservative Germany.
The minimum daily unemployment benefit has also been held constant (at SEK 320) since 2002, so those obtaining it (low-income earners and those who are not members of an insurance fund) have also experienced a gradual fall in the replacement rate.2.2
In 2010 the total fertility rate of 1,932 births per 1,000 women fell further below the replacement rate of 2,100 births for the third year running.
